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America's COVID-19 Projections

March 30, 2020

A new interactive data modeling tool from the University of Washington offers projections of resource use during the COVID-19 pandemic- helping healthcare facilities across the country prepare for what is to come.

This new tool was created by UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). It forecasts that COVID-19 hospitalizations in the United States will peak on April 15th, 2020. On this date, the model predicts a bed shortage of 61,509 beds and a ventilator shortage of 26,753 ventilators country-wide. The model also predicts that April 15th will be the peak of "deaths per day" in the United States, with an estimated 2,271 deaths.

The tool allows users to select any individual state, which will display data on the state mandated social distancing, hospital resource use, deaths per day and total deaths. Individual state’s “peaks” vary, but most fall in mid to end of April.

The University of Washington's analysis tool is different from most coronavirus modeling because it takes into account the impact of social distancing measures as well as the number of deaths across the U.S. and other countries- this is more reliable than confirmed infections due to initial testing deficiencies.

The analysis suggests that if measures like social distancing are not followed, the course of the pandemic will change for the worse.